Expected Value

I have decided after looking at my bank account and seeing the number of deposits I have made into Poker sites recently that something needs to change, I think in my own mind I was allowing my short term wins to overshadow the losses. I am not altogether to sure what makes a great No Limit player but I do know what makes a great Limit player and that is math. Limit Poker is more a of mechanical game and the understanding of the odds and probability, then being able to apply this information on every betting decision you make is the key to playing winning Limit Poker.

What I am looking for at the moment is a way of paying off my outstanding debts, building a bankroll and having enough confidence in my results to quit my day job, therefore I have made a decision to go back to learning Limit Poker, this way I will be able to say with a greater deal of accuracy when reviewing previous hands if the decision was +EV or -EV (expected value).

It seems to me a lot of the decisions made in No Limit Texas Hold em are more to do with feel of the game rather than outright math. Poker is a game of incomplete information and as far as I am concerned in No Limit that information is even more incomplete. Maybe at some point in the future once I am earning decent money playing Limit Hold em and I have a better feel for the game I can try my hand at No Limit once again but for now its time to take my head out of the sand except the facts, buckle down and learn the math behind the game.

Smelling Fishy

I had a $15 restricted bonus put into my party poker account yesterday but could only be used for party casino so I spent about 10 minutes playing blackjack and the $5 I ended up coming away with I took to the Poker tables which within the space of about 2 hours I turning into $30 then proceeded to blow the $30 on one hand I had pocket 8's and the flop came AJ5 with only one other player in the hand who was making min bets I raised to $3 he promptly went all in I called thinking he was either bluffing or on a draw and he turned over AJ, not sure what the hell was going through my mind on this hand as all I could of beaten was a pair of 5's or a bluff. I guess I'm just another Party Poker fish.

Gone Broke Again

Well I have had an interesting couple of weeks at the small stakes 6 max table and have ended up loosing all the money I won, most of this seems to have been lost playing tables one level up from where I am making money, I am starting to feel a little disillusioned with the whole Poker thing, but am not even close to throwing the towel in just yet.

However disillusioned I must be feeling at the moment about my small wins an losses, must be nothing compared to a lot of American players who's sole income derives from online poker now that the Internet Gambling Prohibition Act has been passed, my heart goes out to all the US players and for one of the few times in my life I am grateful to be British.I have included an essay posted by Nolan Dalla author of "The Man Behind the Shades" which in my opinion raises some very interesting points.

Black Friday For Online Gambling
I have read many public forums over the past few days. Until now, I have not spoken out publicly on the Internet Gambling Prohibition Act, and the new version of this law which was attached to the Ports Security Bill on Friday night, although my views are probably foreseeable.

I do not believe most of the members here quite understand the degree of damage this new legislation will have upon the online gambling industry -- including sports wagering, poker, and affiliated businesses such as MadJacks, et. al.

Before I comment upon this legislation and its detrimental impacts, first I should disclose that I have been involved in the poker business for more than a decade. I was and am the Media Director for the World Series of Poker. I was, until yesterday, the Director of Communications for PokerStars.com -- the second-largest online poker site in the world. I resigned my position based on legal advice. In 2004, I was the Editor of a sports betting magazine published by SportingBet USA. I also served as a guest handicapper here at MadJacks for four years. Please note that the opinions expressed here are not those of the World Series of Poker, PokerStars.com, or anyone else I have been affiliated with. They are my own.

Once this bill is signed into law (possibly as early as Wednesday, Oct. 4), it becomes effective immediately. This is why 888, PartyGaming, and others are suspending US operations, effective immediately. News has already been released that .COM (money) poker games will not be available to US residents. However, .NET (free) games will continue uninterrupted according to reports.

I expect this to have a ripple affect across the entire industry. Most of the larger poker sites, and likely offshore sportsbooks as well, will be forced to block wagers from US residents. Otherwise, all operators/employees are subject to arrest and prosecution if they enter US territory. Those here and elsewhere who have stated this new law "only applies to financial transactions" have a narrow and tragically misguided view of the legislation. It essentially makes any employee or agent of the offshore site a criminal under US law -- UNLESS they block transactions from US residents. In short, an executive from an offshore sportsbook could enter the US and not fear arrest, provided that company is not doing business inside the United States.

Hence, the impetus is on the sites themselves to shut down US operations and links to US clients. I expect that most of the larger sportsbooks and poker sites will follow this trend for a few reasons which follow:

1. First, many of the larger, more established companies will take a long-term strategic view. They will decide it is better to operate within the law, rather than break it. This is especially true for public companies subject to gaming law and regulations, such as Party, 888, etc.

2. Companies which comply with US law now will be in a better position to re-enter the US market, provided online gambling is eventually legalized.

3. While profits will decline in the short-term, these companies will be forced to expand into new markets (Asia, Latin America, and so forth) or perish. Those companies with diversified products (non-US sports on the betting menu, for example) will be in better position to make the adjustment.

4. I expect a number of rogue sites to pop up and circumvent the law. Clearly, some sites will emerge and take the risk of accepting US wagers because of great potential profit. Sadly, I expect some of these rogue sites will be poorly run and mismanaged and scandal will result, which impacts the entire industry, and this makes legalization in the US even more difficult.

5. I expect that most of the majors in the sports betting market will continue to operate through the end of football season (the most profitable time of the year) and use the 270-day enforcement discussion period as a gray area which can be exploited to their advantage. However, as arrests and prosecutions continue to make news (Caruthers, Dicks, etc.) some of the majors will be forced to confront the prospect of blocking US traffic. I also expect US officials to put pressure on some governments such as Costa Rica, Antigua, and others to regulate their own sportsbooks, in the manner that the US government is involved in drug policy in counties like Mexico, Columbia, and so forth.

6. I predict that most of the majors will conduct themselves in a professional manner, by refunding deposits and paying (winning) players upon request. More to the point, I am not withdrawing my money from any poker or sports betting account at this time. However, those sites which openly violate US law will risk eventually being targeted in international court. I admit to having less knowledge on this issue than any other. But I do not fear that well-established sportsbooks will run away with money. I can say with absolute certainty that the big poker sites will act in good faith. I think I know this industry well enough to express this confidence.

As to the impacts on poker and sportsbetting, this new law is going to be DEVASTATING. Especially for poker.

Consider that:

A. If poker sites cannot accept deposits from US players, that will kill 70-80 percent of the overall market. The question becomes -- is there enough of a remaining market and enough contributing players in smaller markets to sustain operations and expansion? Perhaps. But it will take years, if not a decade to return to what has been the golden age of poker.

B. Online poker sites and sportsbooks will no longer be able to advertise (.COM-related services) inside the US. Media outlets will simply refuse to accept the ads. This includes print, television, and radio. Consider the implications. Thousands of new players were signing up daily at various sites. All of that vanishes. Sports gambling is less-reliant on advertising. However, the loss of the US market will force unforeseen changes in how these businesses are run, especially those companies that have multiple-gambling related products, such as BoDog, Paradise, etc.

C. Online betting sites will likely not be able to post banner ads and links to gaming sites, especially those based inside the US. "Aiding and abetting" laws could result in arrest and prosecution for those who provide links to US residents. Poker magazines, online betting forums, and even MadJacks could suffer. I remain uncertain as to how severe this impact will be, especially at MadJacks. But for the hundreds of poker sites/sports sties and blogs out there that are dependent upon online poker and sportsbook advertising, many will go out of business. Once again, this might not seem a big issue to everyone, but these are the pioneers who are bringing in new poker players and sports bettors and when they dry up, the market shrinks and everyone is adversely affected.

D. Many sites use what are called affiliates. Persons who are affiliates and live inside the US will now be subject to arrest and prosecution, particularly those who do not block financial transactions from the US.

E. The celebrity poker culture around star poker players will diminish. One poker site is heavily branded to many big names. Now, these players will no longer be able to promote their sites inside the US. Hence, their value and stature diminishes.

F. Big events like the World Series of Poker, which attract meany players and great interest from online poker sites, could decline in size for the first time in history. I am most sensitive to commenting upon this event because I still have a longstanding association with the WSOP. However, anyone who looks at the situation must conclude that the WSOP and major poker tournaments will be hurt by this new law.

G. Online gaming sponsorships of various products and services will decline. For instance, Golden Palace ads in boxing arenas, NBA stadiums, and on halftime shows will diminish, if not end completely. PartyPoker ads that are seen regularly on TV, on all stations, will fade away. Millions in advertising revenue will be lost by media companies (which begs the question (why were they not fighting this legislation?)

Keep in mind that these points are off the top of my head. I do not pretend to have a legal background. They are simply personal points of view and speculation as to the impacts of this new law.

Finally, there were some here and elsewhere who said not to worry, that the law would never pass, and so forth. Now, we see what happens when we remain complacent and passive. Aside from this being an outrageous violation of personal freedoms and privacy in this country, I view this issue as largely symbolic of the decline of civil liberties in recent years, and an eerie warning of what is to come. It brings to mind a bumper sticker I saw recently, "If you aren't outraged, you aren't paying attention."


Nolan Dalla
Las Vegas, NV

The Snake Charmer

I seem to be having a real problem with tilt at the moment over the past week I have made quite a few $25 deposits in my Ultimate Bet account played well and gotten my bankroll up to over $100 on a few occasions only to get a few bad beats and let it affect my game end end up loosing it all.


Last night I was watching a program on TV about a snake charmer this guy who lives in Australia spends about 8 hours each day charming the pants off his snakes. These snakes are capable of killing a man with one bite, needless to say he ended up getting bitten as he was putting one of his snakes back in its box. The whole snake charming business seemed to me very much like No-Limit Hold em in so far as a slight lapse of concentration can mean the end of the game.

There's No Limit

Well at the start of last night I had about $4 in my Ultimate Bet account needless to say this did not last very long, and I ended up making another $25 deposit, which is something I was not too happy about doing, but degenerate gambler that I am I could not help myself.

I spent about 3 hours of the evening playing $.50 cent No Limit 6 person max cash tables, and ended the evening with $75 dollars in my account. Out of all the Hold'em games I think the my favourite has to be the short handed No Limit tables as the action is fast and for the good player there is the opportunity to make a lot of money in these types of games. However all that aside I have never really been any good at these type of games before.

I had something of an eureka last night as far as profitable play in the short handed tables is concerned and that was to respect your opponents preflop raises IE. fold all marginally playable hands such as small suited connectors and low pairs when under a raise. I think that the amount of poker tournaments I have played in recently have really helped me play a very tight but aggressive cash game. I think whilst I am still learning and improving my game the key is to play very tight and protect my bankroll which is in essence my poker scholarship fund.

Bankroll = $75

Take it to the Limit

Well after a full week of more or less none stop play I am down about $90. I do feel that a lot of this was due to mind set rather than being outplayed. As far as the tournaments are concerned I made 1st place whenever I gave my full concentration to the game.

Most of the single table online tournaments all seem to have a set pattern to them which is players seem to play very aggressively when the blinds are low then play very tight once the blinds have gone up. I think the correct strategy for the tournaments is the complete opposite. Why risk your entire stack at the beginning of a tournament when the blinds are low?

I spent a couple of hours playing limit cash games last night and I ended up making a modest profit, my limit game has definitly improved a great deal and I have no idea why.

Good Plans

Well plans are always subject to change and my plan to spend the week studying has changed and I spent the majority of this week playing sit and go single table tournaments at Ultimate Bet. I am about even on the week so far I seem to lose most of my winnings on the cash games, so have decided to concentrate on just the tournaments.

I have spent the week mainly playing the $5 and $10 tables. Once I have got myself sorted I will post a running tally of my winnings and loses.