Expected Value

I have decided after looking at my bank account and seeing the number of deposits I have made into Poker sites recently that something needs to change, I think in my own mind I was allowing my short term wins to overshadow the losses. I am not altogether to sure what makes a great No Limit player but I do know what makes a great Limit player and that is math. Limit Poker is more a of mechanical game and the understanding of the odds and probability, then being able to apply this information on every betting decision you make is the key to playing winning Limit Poker.

What I am looking for at the moment is a way of paying off my outstanding debts, building a bankroll and having enough confidence in my results to quit my day job, therefore I have made a decision to go back to learning Limit Poker, this way I will be able to say with a greater deal of accuracy when reviewing previous hands if the decision was +EV or -EV (expected value).

It seems to me a lot of the decisions made in No Limit Texas Hold em are more to do with feel of the game rather than outright math. Poker is a game of incomplete information and as far as I am concerned in No Limit that information is even more incomplete. Maybe at some point in the future once I am earning decent money playing Limit Hold em and I have a better feel for the game I can try my hand at No Limit once again but for now its time to take my head out of the sand except the facts, buckle down and learn the math behind the game.

Smelling Fishy

I had a $15 restricted bonus put into my party poker account yesterday but could only be used for party casino so I spent about 10 minutes playing blackjack and the $5 I ended up coming away with I took to the Poker tables which within the space of about 2 hours I turning into $30 then proceeded to blow the $30 on one hand I had pocket 8's and the flop came AJ5 with only one other player in the hand who was making min bets I raised to $3 he promptly went all in I called thinking he was either bluffing or on a draw and he turned over AJ, not sure what the hell was going through my mind on this hand as all I could of beaten was a pair of 5's or a bluff. I guess I'm just another Party Poker fish.

Gone Broke Again

Well I have had an interesting couple of weeks at the small stakes 6 max table and have ended up loosing all the money I won, most of this seems to have been lost playing tables one level up from where I am making money, I am starting to feel a little disillusioned with the whole Poker thing, but am not even close to throwing the towel in just yet.

However disillusioned I must be feeling at the moment about my small wins an losses, must be nothing compared to a lot of American players who's sole income derives from online poker now that the Internet Gambling Prohibition Act has been passed, my heart goes out to all the US players and for one of the few times in my life I am grateful to be British.I have included an essay posted by Nolan Dalla author of "The Man Behind the Shades" which in my opinion raises some very interesting points.

Black Friday For Online Gambling
I have read many public forums over the past few days. Until now, I have not spoken out publicly on the Internet Gambling Prohibition Act, and the new version of this law which was attached to the Ports Security Bill on Friday night, although my views are probably foreseeable.

I do not believe most of the members here quite understand the degree of damage this new legislation will have upon the online gambling industry -- including sports wagering, poker, and affiliated businesses such as MadJacks, et. al.

Before I comment upon this legislation and its detrimental impacts, first I should disclose that I have been involved in the poker business for more than a decade. I was and am the Media Director for the World Series of Poker. I was, until yesterday, the Director of Communications for PokerStars.com -- the second-largest online poker site in the world. I resigned my position based on legal advice. In 2004, I was the Editor of a sports betting magazine published by SportingBet USA. I also served as a guest handicapper here at MadJacks for four years. Please note that the opinions expressed here are not those of the World Series of Poker, PokerStars.com, or anyone else I have been affiliated with. They are my own.

Once this bill is signed into law (possibly as early as Wednesday, Oct. 4), it becomes effective immediately. This is why 888, PartyGaming, and others are suspending US operations, effective immediately. News has already been released that .COM (money) poker games will not be available to US residents. However, .NET (free) games will continue uninterrupted according to reports.

I expect this to have a ripple affect across the entire industry. Most of the larger poker sites, and likely offshore sportsbooks as well, will be forced to block wagers from US residents. Otherwise, all operators/employees are subject to arrest and prosecution if they enter US territory. Those here and elsewhere who have stated this new law "only applies to financial transactions" have a narrow and tragically misguided view of the legislation. It essentially makes any employee or agent of the offshore site a criminal under US law -- UNLESS they block transactions from US residents. In short, an executive from an offshore sportsbook could enter the US and not fear arrest, provided that company is not doing business inside the United States.

Hence, the impetus is on the sites themselves to shut down US operations and links to US clients. I expect that most of the larger sportsbooks and poker sites will follow this trend for a few reasons which follow:

1. First, many of the larger, more established companies will take a long-term strategic view. They will decide it is better to operate within the law, rather than break it. This is especially true for public companies subject to gaming law and regulations, such as Party, 888, etc.

2. Companies which comply with US law now will be in a better position to re-enter the US market, provided online gambling is eventually legalized.

3. While profits will decline in the short-term, these companies will be forced to expand into new markets (Asia, Latin America, and so forth) or perish. Those companies with diversified products (non-US sports on the betting menu, for example) will be in better position to make the adjustment.

4. I expect a number of rogue sites to pop up and circumvent the law. Clearly, some sites will emerge and take the risk of accepting US wagers because of great potential profit. Sadly, I expect some of these rogue sites will be poorly run and mismanaged and scandal will result, which impacts the entire industry, and this makes legalization in the US even more difficult.

5. I expect that most of the majors in the sports betting market will continue to operate through the end of football season (the most profitable time of the year) and use the 270-day enforcement discussion period as a gray area which can be exploited to their advantage. However, as arrests and prosecutions continue to make news (Caruthers, Dicks, etc.) some of the majors will be forced to confront the prospect of blocking US traffic. I also expect US officials to put pressure on some governments such as Costa Rica, Antigua, and others to regulate their own sportsbooks, in the manner that the US government is involved in drug policy in counties like Mexico, Columbia, and so forth.

6. I predict that most of the majors will conduct themselves in a professional manner, by refunding deposits and paying (winning) players upon request. More to the point, I am not withdrawing my money from any poker or sports betting account at this time. However, those sites which openly violate US law will risk eventually being targeted in international court. I admit to having less knowledge on this issue than any other. But I do not fear that well-established sportsbooks will run away with money. I can say with absolute certainty that the big poker sites will act in good faith. I think I know this industry well enough to express this confidence.

As to the impacts on poker and sportsbetting, this new law is going to be DEVASTATING. Especially for poker.

Consider that:

A. If poker sites cannot accept deposits from US players, that will kill 70-80 percent of the overall market. The question becomes -- is there enough of a remaining market and enough contributing players in smaller markets to sustain operations and expansion? Perhaps. But it will take years, if not a decade to return to what has been the golden age of poker.

B. Online poker sites and sportsbooks will no longer be able to advertise (.COM-related services) inside the US. Media outlets will simply refuse to accept the ads. This includes print, television, and radio. Consider the implications. Thousands of new players were signing up daily at various sites. All of that vanishes. Sports gambling is less-reliant on advertising. However, the loss of the US market will force unforeseen changes in how these businesses are run, especially those companies that have multiple-gambling related products, such as BoDog, Paradise, etc.

C. Online betting sites will likely not be able to post banner ads and links to gaming sites, especially those based inside the US. "Aiding and abetting" laws could result in arrest and prosecution for those who provide links to US residents. Poker magazines, online betting forums, and even MadJacks could suffer. I remain uncertain as to how severe this impact will be, especially at MadJacks. But for the hundreds of poker sites/sports sties and blogs out there that are dependent upon online poker and sportsbook advertising, many will go out of business. Once again, this might not seem a big issue to everyone, but these are the pioneers who are bringing in new poker players and sports bettors and when they dry up, the market shrinks and everyone is adversely affected.

D. Many sites use what are called affiliates. Persons who are affiliates and live inside the US will now be subject to arrest and prosecution, particularly those who do not block financial transactions from the US.

E. The celebrity poker culture around star poker players will diminish. One poker site is heavily branded to many big names. Now, these players will no longer be able to promote their sites inside the US. Hence, their value and stature diminishes.

F. Big events like the World Series of Poker, which attract meany players and great interest from online poker sites, could decline in size for the first time in history. I am most sensitive to commenting upon this event because I still have a longstanding association with the WSOP. However, anyone who looks at the situation must conclude that the WSOP and major poker tournaments will be hurt by this new law.

G. Online gaming sponsorships of various products and services will decline. For instance, Golden Palace ads in boxing arenas, NBA stadiums, and on halftime shows will diminish, if not end completely. PartyPoker ads that are seen regularly on TV, on all stations, will fade away. Millions in advertising revenue will be lost by media companies (which begs the question (why were they not fighting this legislation?)

Keep in mind that these points are off the top of my head. I do not pretend to have a legal background. They are simply personal points of view and speculation as to the impacts of this new law.

Finally, there were some here and elsewhere who said not to worry, that the law would never pass, and so forth. Now, we see what happens when we remain complacent and passive. Aside from this being an outrageous violation of personal freedoms and privacy in this country, I view this issue as largely symbolic of the decline of civil liberties in recent years, and an eerie warning of what is to come. It brings to mind a bumper sticker I saw recently, "If you aren't outraged, you aren't paying attention."


Nolan Dalla
Las Vegas, NV

The Snake Charmer

I seem to be having a real problem with tilt at the moment over the past week I have made quite a few $25 deposits in my Ultimate Bet account played well and gotten my bankroll up to over $100 on a few occasions only to get a few bad beats and let it affect my game end end up loosing it all.


Last night I was watching a program on TV about a snake charmer this guy who lives in Australia spends about 8 hours each day charming the pants off his snakes. These snakes are capable of killing a man with one bite, needless to say he ended up getting bitten as he was putting one of his snakes back in its box. The whole snake charming business seemed to me very much like No-Limit Hold em in so far as a slight lapse of concentration can mean the end of the game.

There's No Limit

Well at the start of last night I had about $4 in my Ultimate Bet account needless to say this did not last very long, and I ended up making another $25 deposit, which is something I was not too happy about doing, but degenerate gambler that I am I could not help myself.

I spent about 3 hours of the evening playing $.50 cent No Limit 6 person max cash tables, and ended the evening with $75 dollars in my account. Out of all the Hold'em games I think the my favourite has to be the short handed No Limit tables as the action is fast and for the good player there is the opportunity to make a lot of money in these types of games. However all that aside I have never really been any good at these type of games before.

I had something of an eureka last night as far as profitable play in the short handed tables is concerned and that was to respect your opponents preflop raises IE. fold all marginally playable hands such as small suited connectors and low pairs when under a raise. I think that the amount of poker tournaments I have played in recently have really helped me play a very tight but aggressive cash game. I think whilst I am still learning and improving my game the key is to play very tight and protect my bankroll which is in essence my poker scholarship fund.

Bankroll = $75

Take it to the Limit

Well after a full week of more or less none stop play I am down about $90. I do feel that a lot of this was due to mind set rather than being outplayed. As far as the tournaments are concerned I made 1st place whenever I gave my full concentration to the game.

Most of the single table online tournaments all seem to have a set pattern to them which is players seem to play very aggressively when the blinds are low then play very tight once the blinds have gone up. I think the correct strategy for the tournaments is the complete opposite. Why risk your entire stack at the beginning of a tournament when the blinds are low?

I spent a couple of hours playing limit cash games last night and I ended up making a modest profit, my limit game has definitly improved a great deal and I have no idea why.

Good Plans

Well plans are always subject to change and my plan to spend the week studying has changed and I spent the majority of this week playing sit and go single table tournaments at Ultimate Bet. I am about even on the week so far I seem to lose most of my winnings on the cash games, so have decided to concentrate on just the tournaments.

I have spent the week mainly playing the $5 and $10 tables. Once I have got myself sorted I will post a running tally of my winnings and loses.

Odd ramblings

Finished Harrington on Hold'em VOL1 today, before I start on Harrington on Hold'em VOL2 I plan to re-read VOL1 whilst taking notes as there is only so much information you can take in on a first reading.

I am currently thinking about re-evaluating my I plan to spend next week playing online Tournaments for money, I feel that I have a better understanding of the game than I ever, but I also think that a lot of the basic principles that Dan Harrington talks although I understand, I don't fully understand who to implement as yet. I feel these basic principles are the foundation of any good Poker Players game. I suppose the main area of my game that I feel is lacking at the moment are pot odds.

In the very beginning of his book Dan makes the comment:

There are a variety of mistakes one can make in Poker, but one of the most serious is to make a bet or a call which is not correct given the pot odds available to you, either because you haven't made the right deductions about your opponents cards, or because you have a generally correct idea about his cards, but you've ignored the pot odds entirely

In my opinion what separates the good players from the average players in No-Limit Hold em is the ability to accurately put your opponents on a certain range of hands compare this range of hands to your own, then manipulate the pot accordingly, and in order to do this you must be able to calculate outs and pot odds on the fly.

Although I am able to put my opponents on an accurate range of hands a lot of the time, I am still not comfortable calculating outs and pot odds on the fly and I feel that if I start playing in real Tournaments now then this area of my game could go neglected indefinitely, I think what we are talking about here is baby steps.

On a more interesting note a came across some Poker Videos on the net put together by an online player called TuffFish. The stuff on these videos is just pure gold here is the link to the first one, will post more later.

http://68.168.64.9/pokerhands/1st_video/1st_video_media/1st_video.wmv

The Continuation Bet

I have a week off work next week and plan to spend the entire week playing single table tournaments on either Poker Stars or Party Poker. I am using Poker Academy in single table tournament mode to practice with the bots at the highest setting and from what I have seen at the lower stakes tournaments the Poker Academy bots are a lot stiffer competition. My plan is to start of playing the $6 sit n goes then if I am able to win a couple of these then move up to the $11 sit n goes then perhaps evaluate the situation from there.

Most of last night I spent reading about continuation bets although I thought I already incorporated continuation bets in my game I have never really known what the correct bet size would be and when to make the bet and when not to make the bet, If I'm completely honest I would say that most of my continuation bets were bluffs as I was betting to much. Harrington describes the continuation bet in his book and I now see why these bets are so important, for example in the past because I was the aggressor preflop and the flop completely missed me I would sometimes just check and every now and again make a continuation bet of about what ever figure came into my head at the time, which is not the most mathematical approach to the game and certainly not good Poker, because of my reluctance to make a continuation bet when I missed the flop, when the flop did hit me I often found myself slow playing the hand, consequently I was allowing my opponents to draw out on me and also loosing the pots I could win when I made my continuation bet and everybody else folds because the flop misses them.

For me the most important aspect of the continuation bet is the having a better idea of where you stand as far as your opponents hand strength and whether or not they are on a draw, this then gives you valuable information on how to proceed with the hand. I remember reading in Doyle Brunsons "Super System" that you always want to be the aggressor this is because by being the aggressor you put your opponent on a back foot and he is always guessing about what strength of your hand is, I think this is where the continuation bet comes in. When you bet or raise before the flop and then bet again after the flop your opponent is never really sure if the flop hit you or not.

I find it funny how by reading Harrington's book it has allowed me to understand something that I a read earlier and previously not fully understood it all seems so obvious now. I suppose this is what happens when you take information from different sources I found this happened a lot when I was studying for IT Certifications, and I don't think it is because one book is better than the other or one author is better than the other I think it's because the greater understanding you have of a subject matter the easier it is to learn new information.

Poker Academy

A couple of months ago I finally decided that I needed to find away to learning Poker without loosing a shitload of money I had tried the play money tables and decided they were a waste of time people tend to play a whole lot differently when they have to part with there own money. I decided to Check out some of the Poker training software, after doing a bit of research it looked like there were 2 big names Wilson's software and Poker Academy. After reading this article http://www.discoverychannel.ca/science/luck_lab/pokerbot/ on the Discovery channel web site I decided to go for Poker Academy.

The software was not cheap at $120 for the pro version but after having used Poker Academy for a couple of months I feel it has really helped me improve my game it is an invaluable tool in my progress. The bots are programmed so that they are able to learn your play and after a few hundred hands they get progressively smarter, whilst playing at the table on the right hand side of the screen you can view Stats such as Win Rate. Pot Odds and Hand Strength also the software comes with its own advisor that offers hand advise at each stage of the betting round.

The software is for Limit, No-Limit and Tournament Texas Holdem, My current plan is to implement the advice I am reading in the Harrington Books on using Poker Academy and once I am ready start playing the Small Stakes Online Tournaments.

I have read about two thirds of the first Harrington volume and I have already won two of the Poker Academy Tournaments that I was previously unable to beat, I really like the way things are going at the moment and feel that more and more things are starting to fit into place.

Harrington on Hold'em arrives

Well books have finally arrived and I must say that I am already very impressed with what I have read so far, I am only a few chapters into it and things that seemed very fuzzy before now seem very clear, will post a full review once I have finished reading.

The Plan is to read both books from start to finish then reread the books whilst taking notes, I am already thinking about purchasing VOL3 which from what I have read on the NET appears to be a workbook. As far a study is concerned I think the best approach is to bombared your brain with as many learning methods as possible this way stuff you miss whilst reading, you pick up when taking notes, what you miss when taking notes you pick whilst playing.

The more I play and study Poker the more I realize there is to learn. I have heard it said that Poker takes 5 minutes to learn how to play and a life time to master, never a truer word spoken sometimes feel like I have started some never ending Chinese puzzle, and get so frustrated in trying to make it things work and other times everything just flows sometimes this is down to the cards that are dealt but most the time this is just pure state of mind.

So how do we achieve this state of mind? Well I don't think it boils down to one single factor, in fact I think there are several different variables that go into a good state of mind at the poker tables including:

1.)Knowing your Game - The more you have learned about Poker from study before you hit the tables the easier it is to study the table.

2.)Getting Enough Sleep - This has probably been the biggest factor in the times that I have gone on tilt at the table.

3.)Eating Right - When you eat junk food you feel like crap and it has a strong bearing on mental capacity.

4.)Meditation - You may laugh but a lot of the top pros do it, regular meditation develops good concentration, and concentration lapses at the poker table can be very expensive.

Knowledge

This month I will be 28 and my plan is to be playing poker for a living before my 30th birthday. Considering the fact that I am as not yet a winning player (although I have had the occasional modest online win only to loose it all the following day) then this probably sounds a little presumptuous , however I firmly believe this is a game that can be beat, and more to the point I can beat the game.

As an example how many times in the past have you come across a problem and thought I can't solve it there is no solution to this problem, you have gone over and over the problem without success then all of a sudden you have had a eureka moment and the solution to the problem that you spent hours or days wrestling with suddenly seems easy if not obvious.

"Knowledge reveals itself to those that diligently pursue it."

After spending several months hoping between playing Limit and No Limit Hold 'em I have decided to play Tournament No Limit Hold 'em with a view to some time in the future playing the No Limit cash games. I looked around on Amazon at Tournament poker book reviews and decided to order Harrington on Hold 'em Vol. 1 and Vol. 2 these books had nearly 200, 5 star reviews! The books should arrive tomorrow or the day after and I am really looking forward to getting them.

First Ever Post

Last year I bought a PC magazine and inside was a free magazine called online gambler, I have never been a gambler as I always thought gambling was a mugs game. I'm not sure why but I decided to have a flick through, most of the magazine seemed to be dedicated to poker, up until this point I had never played poker before and had always thought it was like all other casino games insofar as you could win if you got lucky. After reading the magazine I realized that not only was poker a SKILL game but there were people all over the world earning a living playing poker.

The fact that people were earning a living playing poker sparked off an interest in me because at the time I was working for IBM, the contract I was on had gone up for renewal and been won by Fujitsu and I was facing a very uncertain future. I had just spent the last 2 years working towards an MCSE which I have now obtained. Whilst working toward my MCSE I had my whole life planned out I was going to spend another year working for IBM then start IT contracting and earn big money. However plans are always subject to change and this plan has changed. I think I have lied to myself for long enough and I am just not cut out for a career in sucking corporate cock, and lets face it folks 99.9% of the people that make it high up the corporate ladder do so not because of their ability to get the job done but their ability to talk a good talk. I don’t think that the time I spent working towards my Microsoft Certification was wasted as I firmly believe what you get by achieving your goals is not nearly as important as what you become, and what I became by achieving my goal was confident. Confident in my own ability to start a project and finish it.

A week or two after reading the gambling magazine my mother bought me a book called "Big Deal" by Anthony Holden, the book for those of you that have not read the book it is a year in the life of a professional poker player, and I can honestly say it's one of the best books I have ever read. I have no idea why my mother decided to buy me this particular book as I had at that point not mentioned my new found interest in poker to anyone. However this was the book that made me decide that my goal in life was no longer to work for some large corporation working someone else’s dream, I now have a dream of my own and that dream is to quit my day job and become a professional poker player.